Europe Finance Ministers Face Pressure for Greek Deal
Written on February 15, 2010
European finance ministers meet today under pressure from investors to spell out the concrete measures they will take to rescue Greece if the nation fails to convince markets it can control its swelling debt.
Finance chiefs from the 16 nations sharing the euro meet at 5 p.m. in Brussels, where they also may decide who will replace Lucas Papademos in June as vice president of the European Central Bank. Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro- area ministers, will hold a press conference after today’s meeting. They will be joined tomorrow by their colleagues from the rest of the 27 European Union countries.
After European leaders made pledges of support for Greece last week that stopped short of committing public funds, investors are looking for greater detail, as well as clues to whether an agreement on Greece could also be applied to Portugal or Spain. Even as the risk premium on Greek debt fell last week on the prospect of European support, the euro weakened on concerns the plans may fall short.
“People will be looking for a roadmap for other crises,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee about $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. “What you want is almost full commitment from the core countries that they will provide loans to cover the Greek funding gaps.”
The euro, which has weakened 5 percent against the dollar since the start of 2010 in part because of concerns over the euro zone’s stability, fell for a fourth day today and slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3615 at 11:30 a.m. in London.
‘Determined Action’
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her counterparts pledged “determined and coordinated action” on Feb. 11 to support Greece’s efforts to rein in the largest budget deficit in the EU. No concrete details were given on how they would help if Greece has problems selling the 53 billion euros ($72 billion) of debt it needs this year. Greece ran a budget gap of 12.7 percent of economic output in 2009.
Aid to Greece could go beyond loan guarantees, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said, according to a lawmaker who attended a Feb. 10 briefing. Another option is a lending facility with proportionate contributions from each country, an EU official said, adding that it’s premature for a European bond.
The treaties underpinning the euro forbid bailouts by the ECB and make clear that nations are not responsible for each other’s debt. Still, EU rules on aid are more flexible than the German government first thought, Schaeuble told lawmakers at the briefing.
The ECB seeks greater cost-cuts and tax hikes in Greece than European finance ministers do, Handelsblatt reported yesterday, citing a draft EU document listing possible measures.
‘Enough’ for Trichet
“Everyone needs to respect their commitments,” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on LCI television yesterday. “For me, that is enough.”
He also said other high-deficit countries must work to meet their budget plans.
“We have a particular Greek problem, but the other countries have their programs and they must be implemented,” he said. It’s “important that all of the heads of state and governments said that they’ll do what is necessary to guarantee the stability of the euro zone.”
The extra interest investors demand to hold Spanish and Portuguese debt rather than German equivalents also fell last week on anticipation of a rescue package for Greece. Portugal’s deficit was 9.3 percent of gross domestic product last year, and Moody’s Investors Service said on Jan. 13 that the economy, like that of Greece, risks “slow death” as increasing amounts of wealth are channeled to pay debt.
Spanish Spread
The extra interest on Spanish 10-year bonds was 80 business card.9 basis points today, compared with 100 basis points on Feb. 5. German bonds declined today as investors waited for details from the Brussels meeting.
Spain, which is suffering from the highest unemployment in the euro region and remained in a recession last quarter, had a 2009 deficit of 11.4 percent of GDP, prompting the government to raise the value-added tax and create a 50 billion-euro cost- cutting plan. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero on Feb. 11 distanced his country’s situation from that of Greece, saying Spain had “solid” public finances and stood ready to help its Mediterranean neighbor.
“An important part of this issue is how ad hoc it turns out to be: it’s not only Greece facing potential difficulties,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank in Amsterdam. “This whole thing needs to be institutionalized.”
‘Flawed’
Merkel may struggle to convince her Free Democratic Party coalition partners of that. Carl-Ludwig Thiele, the FDP’s financial-policy spokesman in parliament, said on Feb. 11 that Germans shouldn’t pay for the “consciously flawed fiscal and budgetary policies” of other countries. Former ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing said last week that German taxpayers could not be expected to support Greece’s pension system, which he called “one of the most luxurious” in the world.
Fifty-three percent of Germans say Greece should be forced to leave the euro-area should its debts endanger the currency’s stability, the Bild newspaper reported, citing a poll.
Last week’s commitment to defend Greece and the euro area as a whole came a day before data showed the region’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter. Further pressure on the euro may help convince Germans that a rescue is in their interests.
“Markets never accept the first solution,” said Thomson at Ignis. “They know that they can always get a better solution, that they force greater surety for themselves.”
Lab Rat
Greek bonds have slumped since November on concerns the government in Athens would struggle to pay off its debt. The extra interest investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of German equivalents is nine times what it was two years ago. Amid expectations of European aid, the spread fell to 295 basis points today from a high of 396 point at the end of last month.
At the same time, Greece signaled there are limits to how far it will go after strikes paralyzed Athens last week.
Prime Minister George Papandreou said Feb. 12 that Greece has become a “lab rat” in the EU’s battle with markets and the bloc “hasn’t yet understood its strength to shape policies and rules to deal with the ailments of international markets.”
ECB Decision
The decision on who replaces Papademos as ECB vice president may be key to the question of who succeeds Jean-Claude Trichet when he steps down as head of the bank next year, with an appointment of Vitor Constancio potentially paving the way for Bundesbank President Axel Weber to take over as president.
Constancio, the Portuguese central bank governor, has a reputation as a policy maker who pays more attention to economic growth than some of his ECB colleagues. That could make it easier for Germany to argue that Weber, who is seen as being at the opposite end of the policy spectrum, should become president. Appointing Luxembourg governor Yves Mersch, who is also seen as one of the ECB’s toughest inflation fighters, to the second-most senior job could increase the chances for Italy’s Mario Draghi.
Filed in: management.