10-year Treasury yield falls 17 basis points to 4.96%, biggest drop since August 2024

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 17 basis points to 4.96% on Thursday, its first close below 5% since September 22, according to Treasury Department data.

What happened

The 10-year yield closed at 4.96%, down from 5.13% on Wednesday. It was the largest one-day decline in the Treasury's daily yield series since August 2, 2024, when the yield fell 19 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.

Shorter and longer maturities fell by similar amounts:

Maturity	October 21	October 22	Change
2-year	4.81%	4.65%	-16 basis points
10-year	5.13%	4.96%	-17 basis points
30-year	5.42%	5.29%	-13 basis points

Source: US Treasury Department, daily par yield curve rates. Changes computed from the published yields.

Yahoo Finance reported that investors moved into bonds as concerns about a slowdown in spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure outweighed inflation worries tied to higher oil prices. Stocks fell the same day: the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%, according to Yahoo Finance.

Why it matters

The 10-year yield reached its highest close of 2026 so far at 5.31% on October 5, according to the Treasury's data. From September 23 through October 21 it did not close below 5.09%.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, in a 12-0 vote. The minutes of that meeting, released on October 7, said that "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end."

The 2-year yield closed at 4.65% on Thursday, 0.65 percentage point above the top of the Fed's target range (computed).

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What to watch

The Fed's policy committee meets on October 27-28, according to its calendar. The BLS is scheduled to release October employment figures on November 6 and October consumer prices on November 10, both at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to its employment and CPI schedules.

A single day's move does not set a direction, and Treasury yields can reverse quickly after the next data release or Fed decision.