US housing starts fall 5.2% to 1.221 million rate in September; permits edge down

US homebuilders started construction on homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000 in September, down 5.2% from August, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

What happened

September starts were 5.2% below the revised August rate of 1,288,000 and 7.4% below the September 2025 rate of 1,319,000. The Census Bureau noted that the monthly change carries a margin of ±11.8 percentage points at a 90% confidence level. Because that range includes zero, the agency says it is "uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease" in the month. The year-over-year change has a margin of ±11.5 points.

Single-family starts were at a rate of 859,000, down 4.6% from a revised 900,000 in August. Starts in buildings with five or more units were at a rate of 349,000.

Permits and completions

Building permits, a signal of future construction, were at a rate of 1,400,000. That is 0.2% below the revised August rate of 1,403,000 and 3.0% below the September 2025 rate of 1,444,000. Single-family authorizations fell 4.0% to 845,000 from 880,000, and authorizations in buildings with five or more units were at 503,000.

Completions were at a rate of 1,192,000, up 2.2% from August but 14.0% below a year earlier. Single-family completions were 840,000.

The mortgage rate backdrop

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.32% in Freddie Mac's survey for the week ended October 22, down from 7.40% a week earlier, according to data compiled by the St. Louis Fed. PulteGroup Chief Executive Ryan Marshall said this week that the "rapid increase in interest rates has stretched affordability even further."

What to watch

The Census Bureau cautions that it can take three months to establish an underlying trend for permits and six months for starts. The October report is scheduled for November 18.