Brent has ranged from $59.93 to $138.21 in a year as Middle East flows stayed constrained

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, stood at $115.22 a barrel on October 20, according to spot price data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) compiled by the St. Louis Fed. That is 92.3% above the year's low of $59.93 on December 16, 2025 and 16.6% below the high of $138.21 on April 7 (both computed).

What happened

The EIA's daily Brent series shows two sharp rises and two declines since the start of 2026. In January and February the price ranged between $61.08 and $73.17 (computed), and it closed at $71.32 on February 27. It then rose in steps, to $90.98 on March 11 and $102.38 on March 12, the first close above $100 in the data, which begin on September 1, 2025 (computed).

The price peaked at $138.21 on April 7 and then fell. It dropped $18.00, or 15.4%, on April 17 to $98.63, the largest one-day decline in the data since September 2025 (computed). By June 26 it had returned to $70.16, close to its level before the March rise.

The second rise began in July. Brent closed at $96.95 on July 31, reached $130.80 on September 15 and ended September at $115.91. On October 2 it rose $20.69, or 18.0%, to $135.51, the largest one-day gain in the data since September 2025 (computed). It then eased: Brent closed at $130.03 on October 9 and $115.22 on October 20, 11.4% lower (computed). The average close from October 1 to October 20 was $124.96 (computed).

Across the 203 trading days of 2026 in the data, Brent closed above $100 on 86 of them (computed). Its average close for the year to October 20 is $95.34 (computed), against an annual average of $69 for 2025, according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Why it matters

The price swings reach consumers through fuel. The EIA's data show the average weekly US retail gasoline price at $4.284 a gallon on October 19, up 41.9% from $3.019 on October 20, 2025 (computed from the weekly series). FinanceInTime reported the latest weekly reading, a fourth straight weekly decline, when it was published.

The EIA's October outlook, released on October 6, puts the September average for retail gasoline at $4.35 a gallon and for diesel at $6.29 a gallon. It said the increase was "driven by higher crude oil prices and rising crack spreads", the gap between crude and the refined products made from it.

The agency also publishes annual averages. It estimates retail gasoline at $3.91 a gallon for 2026, up from $3.10 in 2025, and $3.56 for 2027. For Brent it shows $81 a barrel for 2024, $69 for 2025, a projected $96 for 2026 and $84 for 2027.

The numbers behind it

The two main crude benchmarks have not moved together. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, was $114.58 on April 7, when Brent was $138.21: a gap of $23.63 (computed). On June 30 WTI was $70.56 and Brent $70.46, so WTI was 10 cents higher (computed). On October 20 the gap was $7.33, with WTI at $107.89 (computed). A FinanceInTime article covered the narrowing of the gap earlier in October.

Date	Brent ($ a barrel)	WTI ($ a barrel)
February 27	71.32	66.96
April 7	138.21	114.58
June 30	70.46	70.56
October 20	115.22	107.89

Source: EIA daily spot prices, compiled by the St. Louis Fed (FRED).

What the EIA attributes it to

The price data do not say why prices moved. The EIA's outlook addresses supply directly. "Although we assume that oil flows from the Middle East will remain constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), we estimate that regional shut-in production in September was the lowest since the onset of hostilities," the agency wrote. It assumes that convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and workarounds, including bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers, will let production and exports from the region increase.

Even so, the EIA raised its price forecast. It now expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 a barrel higher than in its September outlook, and $84 a barrel in 2027. It gave two reasons: "The attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia highlight the potential for continued volatility in physical oil flows and oil prices amid ongoing withdrawals of oil inventories globally," and "extreme tightness in diesel markets that raises demand for crude oil in order for refiners to meet diesel demand."

The agency finished its forecast model inputs on October 1, and said the outlook "does not specifically account for market events after that day." That includes the G7's announcement on October 2, the day Brent rose 18.0%. The EIA's source documents do not link that day's price move to any specific event, and neither do the price data.

What to watch

The EIA publishes its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, which will be the first to include the market events after October 1. The Federal Reserve holds a two-day policy meeting on October 27 and 28, according to its calendar; FinanceInTime has covered how energy prices fed into September's inflation figures.

Brent's average close in the first 14 trading days of the fourth quarter, $124.96, is above the EIA's $105 forecast for the full quarter (computed). The forecast was completed before those prices were recorded, and the EIA changed its quarterly figure by $14 a barrel between its September and October outlooks, so the November figure may differ from either.