Job growth slows to 45,000 a month, yet unemployment has held at 4.1%-4.3% since March

US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and payroll growth has averaged 45,000 a month over the past 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. The unemployment rate was 4.2% and has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.

What happened

Nonfarm payroll employment, the BLS's count of jobs at employers, "changed little in September (+29,000), following an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months," the agency said. Employment in all major industries changed little. The unemployment rate was 4.2% and the number of unemployed people 7.1 million.

The BLS also revised earlier months. July was revised down by 31,000, to a loss of 10,000 jobs from a gain of 21,000, and August was revised down by 29,000, to a gain of 133,000 from 162,000. Together the two months are 60,000 lower than first reported.

Health care added 17,000 jobs, slower than its average monthly gain of 33,000 over the prior 12 months. Construction added 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and is down by 129,000 since a peak in May 2025, with most of the loss in insurance carriers and related activities (down 90,000), the BLS said.

Average hourly earnings for private-sector employees rose 0.1% in September to $37.81 and were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. FinanceInTime covered the pay data when the figures were published.

Other household-survey measures also changed little. The participation rate was 61.8% and the employment-population ratio, the share of people aged 16 and over who have a job, was 59.2%. The number of long-term unemployed, jobless for 27 weeks or more, was 1.9 million, or 27.1% of all unemployed people. The number of people marginally attached to the labor force, who want a job and looked for one in the past year but not in the past four weeks, fell by 236,000 to 1.5 million, the BLS said.

Why it matters

Slow hiring would usually push the unemployment rate up. It has not risen, and the household survey explains part of why. The civilian labor force, the number of people working or looking for work, was 170.262 million in September, 999,000 (0.6%) fewer than a year earlier, according to BLS data compiled by the St. Louis Fed (computed). The labor force participation rate was 61.8% in September, down 0.7 percentage point from 62.5% in September 2025 (computed). Both measures reached a low in July, when the participation rate was 61.4%, and have risen since.

The Federal Reserve described the same combination in its September 16 statement: "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little." The same statement said that "economic activity is expanding at a solid pace" and that "domestic spending has been resilient." The data do not show why the labor force shrank, and the BLS release does not say. The Fed raised its target range by 1/4 percentage point that day, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.

Payrolls rose 0.3% in the 12 months to September, or 496,000 jobs (computed). Since December, payrolls have grown by 612,000, an average of 68,000 a month (computed), a faster pace than the 12-month average. The 12-month window includes October 2025, when payrolls fell by 140,000, and December 2025, when they fell by 17,000 (both computed from the latest published figures).

The numbers behind it

Monthly payroll changes in 2026 have been uneven, ranging from a loss of 156,000 jobs in February to a gain of 214,000 in March (computed from the latest published figures). The unemployment rate moved much less over the same months.

Month (2026)	Payroll change (thousands)	Unemployment rate
January	+160	4.3%
February	-156	4.4%
March	+214	4.3%
April	+148	4.3%
May	+63	4.3%
June	+31	4.2%
July	-10	4.1%
August	+133	4.1%
September	+29	4.2%

Source: BLS data compiled by the St. Louis Fed. Payroll changes computed from the level of employment; figures include revisions.

The average of the three most recent months, July to September, is 51,000 jobs a month, and the average of the six months from April to September is 66,000 (both computed).

Initial claims for unemployment insurance, a weekly measure of layoffs, were 194,000 in the week ended October 17, according to the Labor Department's data compiled by the St. Louis Fed. Claims have stayed between 189,000 and 212,000 since July 18 (computed from the weekly series), and FinanceInTime reported the latest figure when it was released.

What the data do not show

The BLS describes what happened to jobs and the labor force. It does not tie the slower hiring or the decline in participation to a cause, and none of the sources opened for this analysis do. The household and establishment surveys are separate samples and can differ month to month, so the comparison of jobs and the labor force above shows a pattern, not a measured link.

What to watch

The BLS is scheduled to publish the Employment Situation for October on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Before that, the Fed's policy meeting runs on October 27 and 28, according to its calendar, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to its release schedule.

If monthly payroll gains stay near the 45,000 average while the labor force grows again, the unemployment rate could move out of its range since March; if the labor force shrinks, it could stay inside it. Which happens depends on data not yet published.