Only four of 19 Case-Shiller cities beat 3.4% inflation as five post annual price declines

Home prices rose in only 14 of the 19 Case-Shiller cities with an August reading from a year earlier, and in just four of them by more than 4%. The median city gained 1.36% (computed), well below the 3.4% pace of consumer prices, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices. The national average of 2.1% hides a wide split between the Midwest and Northeast and parts of the West and Sun Belt.

What happened

S&P Dow Jones Indices published August data for 19 of the 20 cities in its index. It provided no August figure for Detroit because of delays in transaction records from the Wayne County recording office. The release's city table lists a one-year change for each of the 19.

Four cities rose by more than 4% from August 2025: Chicago at 6.70%, New York at 6.19%, Cleveland at 4.29% and Miami at 4.24%. Five fell: Seattle at 1.96%, Las Vegas at 1.29%, Dallas at 0.79%, Denver at 0.76% and Tampa at 0.39%. Nine cities, nearly half, gained less than 1% or lost value: Atlanta at 0.47%, Charlotte at 0.57%, Phoenix at 0.42%, Portland at 0.34% and the five decliners.

Only 4 of the 19 cities outpaced inflation of 3.4%, according to the release (computed against the table). San Francisco, at 3.37%, came within 0.03 percentage point of it. Fifteen of the 19 cities therefore fell short of inflation (computed), which is consistent with the release's finding that the national index fell in real terms for a 15th straight month.

The monthly picture

The monthly readings are not seasonally adjusted, and the release says seasonality continued to weigh on them. Only Chicago, at 0.14%, and Miami, at 0.17%, rose from July before seasonal adjustment. The other 17 cities fell, with Seattle at 1.10% the largest drop, followed by Los Angeles at 0.80% and Dallas at 0.79%.

The 20-City Composite fell 0.4% before seasonal adjustment and rose 0.3% after it. S&P DJI's Rebecca Kaufman said the divergence "suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices."

The release's second table does give seasonally adjusted figures by city, and they change the picture. After adjustment, 13 of the 19 cities rose from July and six fell (computed). San Diego led with a 0.73% gain, followed by Portland at 0.51% and New York at 0.48%. Las Vegas had the largest adjusted decline, at 0.33%, ahead of Seattle at 0.15%, Dallas at 0.14% and Phoenix at 0.11%.

Several cities show the gap between the two measures. Denver fell 0.46% before adjustment and rose 0.31% after it, and Los Angeles fell 0.80% before and rose 0.18% after. The adjusted figures cover one month, so they do not by themselves show whether annual declines in cities such as Denver are ending.

Why the split matters

The release's boom-and-bust table covers only the composites, so it cannot show which cities led or lagged since the 2022 peak. It does show the national index at 336.74, which is 9.3% above its June 2022 peak of 308.06 and 15.1% above its January 2023 trough of 292.67. The 20-City Composite is 9.5% above its peak and 17.3% above its trough.

Those figures give context for the five cities now falling, although they describe the national and composite indices, not those cities. Seattle's index stood at 387.06 in August and Denver's at 315.02, according to the release's table, but the release does not give each city's own peak, so it does not show how close they are to earlier highs.

Kaufman pointed to affordability as a constraint. She said that "with inflation at 3.4%, Brent crude near $100 per barrel and mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range, households continue to face elevated costs alongside persistently high home prices." Her mortgage rate description differs from the Freddie Mac survey described below, and the release does not say which rate series she used.

What mortgage rates add

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, down from 7.40% a week earlier. A year earlier it averaged 6.19%, so the rate is 1.13 percentage points higher (computed). The 15-year rate averaged 6.68%, up from 5.44% a year earlier, which is 1.24 percentage points higher (computed).

Higher borrowing costs raise the monthly payment on a given loan, which is one way rates can weigh on demand. The data in these releases does not show how much of the city-by-city difference in price changes comes from rates, local supply, incomes or the mix of homes sold. FinanceInTime's earlier coverage describes the weekly rate, the national index reading and what builders said about orders.

What to watch

Freddie Mac publishes its survey weekly on Thursdays at 12 p.m. ET, according to its site, so the next reading is due on October 29. S&P DJI publishes the Case-Shiller indices on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 a.m. ET, which puts the September data on November 24 (computed).

In July, the seasonally adjusted change was negative in five cities: Atlanta at 0.08%, Charlotte at 0.29%, Detroit at 0.23%, Las Vegas at 0.17% and Tampa at 0.03% (computed count from the table). Only Las Vegas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Seattle, Dallas and Tampa were negative in August, so the list changed between the two months.

Two things in that release are worth checking against this one. First, whether Detroit returns with a valid August or September figure. Second, whether the count of falling cities, five in August, rises or falls. The release says the indices can be revised for the prior 24 months, so the August city figures cited here may change.