US airlines paid $3.61 to $3.96 a gallon in the third quarter and all six assume more next

Six US passenger airlines reported average fuel prices of $3.61 to $3.96 a gallon for the third quarter, up 56% to 63% from a year earlier at the five that gave a price comparison, and five of them assumed $4.55 to $4.80 for the fourth quarter. Their earnings releases, filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission between October 9 and October 28, show how the same cost shock landed on companies with different fuel arrangements, fleets and capacity plans.

What happened

The six are Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), American Airlines Group (Nasdaq: AAL), United Airlines Holdings (Nasdaq: UAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), JetBlue Airways (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Frontier Group Holdings (Nasdaq: ULCC). Each reported third-quarter revenue growth of 16% or more, and each also reported a sharp rise in fuel cost.

Airline	Third-quarter fuel price per gallon	Change from a year earlier	Fourth-quarter assumption per gallon	Fourth quarter vs. third (computed)
Delta	$3.61 (adjusted)	+60%	about $4.25, including a refinery benefit of about $0.40	+17.7%
American	$3.85	fuel expense +67.5%	about $4.70	+22.1%
United	$3.90	+60.3%	about $4.80	+23.1%
Southwest	$3.92	+63.3%	about $4.55	+16.1%
JetBlue	$3.91	+57%	$4.64	+18.7%
Frontier	$3.96	+56%	$4.75	+19.9%

Sources: each company's earnings release. Delta's third-quarter price is adjusted and includes a refinery benefit of 13 cents a gallon. American reported its fuel expense, not its price, against a year earlier.

The dollar cost was large. American said its fuel expense rose $1.9 billion from a year earlier, United said $1.8 billion and Southwest $821 million, together $4.5 billion (computed). Delta said it expects to absorb a $6 billion increase in fuel costs for the full year. Frontier's 56% rise in price added about $150 million of expense in the quarter, the company said.

Fuel also came in above what some carriers had assumed. Southwest's $3.92 was above its earlier assumption of $3.70 to $3.75 a gallon, and Frontier's average was $0.26 a gallon higher than it had assumed when it issued guidance. Delta said it absorbed more than $500 million of higher fuel costs than in its guidance in early July and still delivered earnings of $1.72 a share, in line with last year.

How revenue responded

Revenue grew faster than capacity at every carrier that reported both. American's third-quarter revenue was $16.3 billion, up 19.3%. United's was $17.9 billion, up 17.4%, on capacity up 1.3%. Southwest's revenue was $8.4 billion, up 21.2%, on capacity down 0.4%. Delta's revenue grew about 16% on flat capacity, and JetBlue's revenue rose 21.1% on capacity up 2.3%. Frontier's revenue rose 52.9% (computed) on capacity up 18%.

JetBlue went furthest in putting a number on the link between the two. It said it recaptured approximately 87% of its higher fuel costs. The other releases do not give an equivalent figure.

The result for earnings differed. Delta reported a pre-tax profit of $1.5 billion, matching last year's. United reported pre-tax earnings of $1.3 billion. Southwest's operating margin was 4.5%, up 4.0 points from a year earlier. American reported a GAAP net loss of $269 million, and Frontier a GAAP net loss of $104 million, although both reported smaller losses or a profit on adjusted measures that exclude special items.

What the fourth-quarter assumptions imply

Every airline that gave a number for the fourth quarter assumed a higher price than it paid in the third, by 16.1% to 23.1% (computed). The figures are not directly comparable. A forward curve is the market price for future delivery, so each assumption is a snapshot taken on one date, not a forecast. The assumptions rest on forward fuel curves dated October 2 (Delta), October 15 (Southwest), October 16 (JetBlue and United) and October 19 (American), and Delta's includes the refinery benefit.

United gave the most detailed sensitivity. It said that in the short term every $0.01 change in fuel price equates to approximately 2.5 cents of earnings per share for the quarter. It also said consensus expectations assumed an all-in price of approximately $4.35, about $0.45 below its own assumption.

American said its assumed $4.70 was "nearly double the price paid in the fourth quarter of 2025" and would raise fuel expense by approximately $2.8 billion from a year earlier. JetBlue said its fuel prices were forecast to be 85% higher than in the same period last year.

The releases do not explain why jet fuel is more expensive. Frontier's release lists the war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East among general risk factors for fuel prices, but none of the six attributes the third-quarter increase to a specific cause.

What the airlines say they will do

Capacity plans for the fourth quarter vary. Delta said seats would grow less than 2%. JetBlue guided to capacity growth of 3.0% to 4.0%, Frontier to 5% to 6% and American to 5.5% to 6.5%.

American was the only carrier to extend the point to 2027, saying that, given elevated fuel prices, it expects network growth in 2027 to slow from 2026 levels. FinanceInTime reported on October 23 on United's record revenue and a 62% rise in its fuel expense.

What to watch

The figures that decide the fourth quarter are the ones the airlines flagged themselves: the fuel price against the $4.25 to $4.80 assumptions, and whether unit revenue keeps pace. Delta guided to revenue growth of about 20% in the December quarter, American to between 19.5% and 22.5%, and JetBlue to RASM growth of 18.0% to 22.0%. If fuel stays near the forward curves while revenue grows at those rates, revenue growth would remain larger than the rise in fuel prices in percentage terms. If prices move toward United's assumption, the company's own sensitivity shows how quickly earnings per share would change. Forward curves change daily and are not forecasts.