Bank of England meets on November 5 with three members already voting for a rise to 4%

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) next sets Bank Rate on Thursday, November 5, with the rate at 3.75% and three of its nine members having voted in September to raise it to 4%, according to the Bank of England.

Three votes for a rise came before the inflation reading rose

At its September 17 decision, the MPC voted 6-3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%. The three dissenters voted to increase it by 0.25 percentage point, to 4%, the Bank said in its monetary policy summary.

The Committee said the risks to the inflation outlook were "tilted to the upside" and that it "stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term." It cited the conflict in the Middle East, which it said had pushed up crude and refined energy prices.

Since then, UK inflation has reached 3.5%

On October 21, the Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September, up from 3.1% in August. On the month, CPI rose 0.4%. Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate, the ONS said.

Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose 2.8% from a year earlier, up from 2.6% in August. The services rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, and the goods rate to 3.2% from 2.7%. In September the MPC had put August services inflation at 3.4%, the same as in July and down from 4.5% in March.

The headline rate is 1.5 percentage points above the 2% target (computed). In September the Committee had said UK CPI inflation was "likely to rise further over coming quarters", so the 3.1% to 3.5% move is in the direction it described.

What economists said before the September figures

A Reuters poll of economists carried out between October 12 and 14, before the September inflation data, found that 54 of 63 respondents forecast a 25 basis point rise in Bank Rate in November, as reported by Global Banking & Finance. The same poll found 30 of 61 economists expected one more rise in the first quarter of 2027, but no majority for further increases. Polls can change, and this one predates the ONS release.

The other side of the case is in the Bank's own words from September: it said there had been "little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting", and that "soft labour market conditions, and the higher interest rates faced by households and businesses since the conflict began, will act to reduce inflation over time."

The next dates

The ONS next publishes UK consumer price inflation on November 18, and the Bank of England's next decision is due on November 5, according to its website.

We would judge the vote split, not just the decision

We think the more informative number on Thursday is the vote, not the rate. A rise would repeat a supply-side shock answer that the Bank itself says works slowly, and a hold with more members voting for 4% than in September would say the Committee is moving toward one anyway.

The threat is policy error in either direction: waiting while services inflation climbs from 3.4% to 3.7%, or tightening into a soft labor market. The opportunity is disinflation without job losses if energy prices ease. We expect any further rises to stay conditional on services inflation and pay, and we would change that view if energy prices fell sharply before the Bank's next meeting.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.