The 10-year Treasury yield ends at 4.91%, 40 basis points below its October 5 peak

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91% on Monday, November 2, down from 5.31% on October 5, which was the highest close of 2026 so far, according to the Treasury Department's daily par yield curve. It is the lowest close since September 9.

Forty basis points in four weeks

The Treasury's table shows the 10-year yield at 5.31% on October 5 and at 4.91% on November 2, a decline of 40 basis points (computed). A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. On the last trading day before Monday, October 30, the yield was 4.94%, so the latest session added a further 3 basis points to the decline (computed).

The move was not limited to one maturity. The 30-year yield fell to 5.28% from 5.66% over the same period, a decline of 38 basis points, and the 2-year yield fell to 4.59% from 4.84%, a decline of 25 basis points (both computed from the Treasury's table).

The 10-year yield was last at or below Monday's level on September 9, when it closed at 4.83% (computed from the Treasury's 2026 daily series). Its lowest close of the year in that series was 3.97% on February 27, and its highest was the 5.31% of October 5.

Long-term yields fell by more than short-term ones

Because the 10-year yield fell by more than the 2-year yield, the gap between them narrowed. On October 5 the 10-year yield was 47 basis points above the 2-year yield. On November 2 it was 32 basis points above (both computed). A narrower gap is called a flatter yield curve.

Short maturities moved much less. The 3-month bill yield was 4.21% on November 2 against 4.22% on October 5, a decline of 1 basis point (computed). The 1-year yield was 4.38%.

What the Federal Reserve said in the middle of the month

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28 in a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring to raise it by 1/4 percentage point. The statement said that "Inflation remains elevated" and that "Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace."

The Treasury's table records closing yields only. It does not say what moved them on any given day, and a month-long decline can reflect many developments at once. The Fed statement does not mention the bond market, so nothing in these sources ties the fall in the 10-year yield to the decision.

The next date

The Federal Reserve's calendar lists the committee's next meeting for December 8-9, a meeting that is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.

A lower 10-year yield is a message about the path of rates, not a verdict

We think the four-week decline is better read as a repricing of the long end than as a change in the Fed's stance. The policy range has not moved since the September increase, and two committee members voted on October 28 for a higher one. The opportunity is that lower long-term yields ease financing costs across the economy if they hold. The threat is that a yield that fell 40 basis points in four weeks can climb back as quickly, as it did before, and the 3-month bill yield, which barely moved, shows that short-term rates still reflect the policy range.

Our forecast, with its conditions: if the 10-year yield stays below 5% through the December 8-9 meeting, the curve would stay flatter than it was in early October. We would change that view if the 2-year yield, which tracks expected policy, turned higher again. We weigh moves over weeks above single sessions, and this one is a month of evidence rather than a day.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.