Real hourly pay was flat in October as wages and prices both rose 0.4%

Hourly pay and consumer prices both rose 0.4% in October, so inflation-adjusted hourly earnings for US workers did not change from September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A shorter workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees cut their real weekly pay by 0.3%.

Two 0.4% moves that cancel out

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $38.00 in October, the BLS said in its employment report. The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) also rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6% rise in September, according to the BLS.

Real earnings are pay adjusted for price changes. The BLS said real average hourly earnings were unchanged from September to October, seasonally adjusted, and real average weekly earnings were unchanged because the average workweek stayed at 34.4 hours.

Where the extra cost came from

Energy prices rose 0.7% in October after a 5.2% increase in September, the BLS said. The gasoline index rose 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis after advancing 9.1% the previous month. Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 0.7% in October. Electricity rose 0.9%, while natural gas fell 0.8%.

Food prices rose 0.5% in October, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. The index for all items less food and energy, known as core, rose 0.3% for a third month in a row. Shelter, which includes rent and the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes, rose 0.3% and accounted for over thirty percent of the monthly increase in the all-items index.

Workers outside management saw a different month

For production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings rose 12 cents, or 0.4%, to $32.75. The BLS measures their real pay against a different price index, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which rose 0.3%. Their real hourly earnings therefore rose 0.1%.

Their average workweek fell, though. The BLS said real average weekly earnings for this group decreased 0.3% over the month, reflecting the 0.1% gain in real hourly pay and a 0.3% decrease in the average workweek.

The year-on-year comparison is missing

The BLS usually reports how real earnings changed over 12 months. It said it cannot this time: it did not collect Consumer Price Index data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so over-the-year comparisons from October 2025 to October 2026 are not available.

The latest annual figures for the two series fall in different months. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the 12 months to October, while the all-items CPI rose 3.7% over the 12 months to September, up from 3.4% in August, the BLS reported. The two rates cover different periods and are not a BLS measure of real earnings.

December 4 and December 10 bring the next readings

The BLS is scheduled to publish November's employment report on Friday, December 4, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the November CPI and real earnings releases on Thursday, December 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

A month of standing still is a pause, not relief

We think October's flat real pay is best read as a pause. For most households it means paychecks covered the month's price increases and no more, and a shorter workweek turned that into a small loss for production and nonsupervisory workers. The mix matters too: energy and food, which households buy often, rose faster than core prices.

The threat is a squeeze that lasts if gasoline and electricity keep rising faster than wages; the opportunity is that core prices have held at 0.3% a month, which is slower than the 0.4% gain in pay. We expect real pay to stay close to flat through the winter if energy prices stop rising, and the December 10 release will show whether the 12-month comparison can be restored. Real hourly pay rising for two months in a row would prove this reading too cautious.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.