China's surplus passes $1 trillion again as imports outpace exports in October

China's goods trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, passing $1 trillion for a second year, customs data released on Tuesday, November 10, showed, as reported by CNBC. Imports grew faster than exports in October, so the monthly surplus narrowed.

Imports outran exports and shrank the October surplus

Exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier, above the 33.5% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, CNBC reported. Export growth had been 36.3% in September.

Imports rose 41.6% from a year earlier, against analysts' estimates of 32% in the same poll, according to CNBC. Import growth outpaced export growth by 6.4 percentage points.

The October surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September, a drop of $28.2 billion, according to The Associated Press. The surplus for the full year 2025 was a record $1.2 trillion, CNBC reported.

Measured in yuan, total goods trade grew 20% from a year earlier to 44.81 trillion yuan in January to October, with imports up 23.6% and exports up 17.6%, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said, according to the State Council's English-language website. In October alone, goods trade in yuan grew 31.2%.

Chips, crude oil and coal behind the import jump

Imports of high-tech products rose 72% by value in October from a year earlier, according to CNBC's calculations from the official figures. Imports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal rose about 41%, 50% and 60% by value. The AP reported that a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf contributed to the rise in imports.

On the export side, integrated circuits rose 101.9% and memory components 132.5%, the State Council site reported from the customs data. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, said the global AI investment boom kept raising the prices of chips and electronic components, which lifted export values, according to the same report.

"In the first 10 months, China's imports from more than 150 countries and regions recorded growth," said Lyu Daliang, director of the GAC's Department of Statistics and Analysis.

Surpluses of about $33 billion each with the US and the EU

Exports to the US rose 32.9% by value in October from a year earlier and imports from the US grew nearly 35%, leaving a monthly surplus of $32.7 billion, CNBC reported. Shipments to the European Union grew 24.4% while imports from the bloc fell more than 4%, widening the surplus with the EU to $33.4 billion.

Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, estimated a seasonally adjusted 2% fall in exports from September, CNBC reported. Yuanliu Hu, an analyst at Citi Research, said export growth could slow to 8% in 2027.

A truce deadline and a car cap ahead

Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend a broader trade truce by two months to January, according to CNBC. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen the following week, CNBC reported.

The EU agreed with Beijing to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles, with a cap of 350,000 cars a year from December 1, according to CNBC.

We would read the import surge as a price story first

We think the narrower October surplus says more about prices than about a turn in Chinese demand. The import categories that grew fastest were fuels and high-tech goods, both measured by value at a time of high energy and chip prices, while an analyst quoted in the State Council report attributed export strength partly to chip prices as well.

The threat is that a surplus of $1.04 trillion in 10 months keeps trade measures coming as the US truce runs out in January. The opportunity is that rising imports, if they spread beyond fuel and chips, would ease the imbalance partners object to. We expect the full-year surplus to pass 2025's $1.2 trillion if November and December average more than about $80 billion each, a forecast that would fail if energy prices fall quickly and exports slow as Capital Economics estimates.

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