Taylor Wimpey trims its 2026 build target as higher mortgage rates slow autumn sales

Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW.), the UK housebuilder, now expects to complete around 10,500 homes in the UK in 2026, below the 10,600 to 10,800 it guided to in July, after a weaker autumn selling season, the company said in a trading statement on November 11. It expects adjusted operating profit around the bottom of analysts' forecasts.

Fewer sales per site through the autumn

The company sold 0.60 homes per sales outlet per week, net of cancellations, between June 29 and November 8, compared with 0.63 in the same period of 2025. Excluding bulk deals, the rate was 0.54, down from 0.61, a decline of 11.5% computed from those figures. The cancellation rate held at 17%.

Chief executive Jennie Daly said the season "has been more subdued, as higher mortgage rates and living costs continue to reduce customer affordability." The statement said increasing mortgage rates had put "further pressure on affordability" during the period.

A smaller order book and softer prices

Taylor Wimpey's order book, excluding joint ventures, stood at 6,839 homes worth about £1,984 million on November 8, against 7,253 homes worth about £2,116 million a year earlier. That is 5.7% fewer homes and 6.2% less value, changes computed from the company's figures.

Pricing showed "further marginal softening," and incentives offered to buyers remain elevated, the company said. It still expects build costs to rise 3% to 4% in 2026.

The company compiled analysts' forecasts for 2026 adjusted operating profit in a range of £262 million to £299 million, published on November 6, and now expects to land around the bottom of that range.

Building more sites while selling fewer homes per site

The slower sales rate comes as the company widens its footprint. It operates from 225 outlets, up about 9% from 206 a year earlier, and has opened 59 so far in 2026, compared with 51 in the same period of 2025. It still expects to end the year with about £250 million in net cash, after returning about £240 million to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and buybacks.

The July guidance had already been trimmed. In its half-year results on July 31, Taylor Wimpey put full-year completions in "the lower half of the range provided in March" and said higher mortgage rates had stretched affordability, particularly for first-time buyers and customers in the south of England.

The statement came after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%, as FinanceInTime reported. The central bank's next rate decision is due on December 17. Taylor Wimpey welcomed the government's Your First Home scheme for first-time buyers and said it awaits detail on funding and implementation.

The order book, not the outlet count, will show whether 2027 recovers

We think the more telling number in the statement is the order book, which shrank in both homes and value while the company opened more sites. More outlets selling fewer homes each means more land and more show homes carrying the same demand, which tends to keep incentives high and margins under pressure.

The opportunity is that Taylor Wimpey enters 2027 with net cash and land already in planning, so it can add volume quickly if mortgage rates ease. The threat is that a further rise in Bank Rate on December 17 would push mortgage rates up again just as the spring selling season begins. We expect UK new-build volumes to stay flat to lower over the next six months if Bank Rate stays at 4% or higher; a recovery in the sales rate excluding bulk deals back above 0.6 would change that view.

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