Pfizer lifts its 2026 outlook as Eliquis growth offsets part of the COVID drop

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) raised its 2026 revenue and earnings guidance on Tuesday, November 3, even though third-quarter revenue of $16,583 million was relatively flat against $16,654 million a year earlier, according to its earnings release.

Where the quarter's growth came from

The company said excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, revenue grew 7% operationally, meaning at constant exchange rates. Eliquis, the blood thinner, rose $513 million, or 25%, operationally. Pfizer attributed that "primarily" to "higher net price in the U.S. primarily due to pricing dynamics, including lower rebates and channel mix favorability", with higher demand globally and declines from generic entry in some international markets partly offsetting.

The release table shows Eliquis revenue of $2,523 million in the quarter against $2,015 million a year earlier, an increase of $508 million (computed). US Eliquis revenue was $1,808 million against $1,292 million, up 40%.

Padcev, a cancer drug, grew 55% operationally, the Vyndaqel family 12%, Nurtec ODT/Vydura 33% and Lorbrena 43%. Pfizer said its launched and acquired products grew 32% operationally.

What fell

Paxlovid revenue fell 63% operationally, which Pfizer tied to "lower COVID-19 infections across the U.S. and international markets". Comirnaty fell 29% operationally, with the company citing a lower favorable adjustment to the US returns provision, lower US utilization "primarily resulting from narrower vaccine recommendations" and lower contractual deliveries abroad. The Prevnar family fell 10%.

Paxlovid and Comirnaty together brought in $1,257 million ($449 million and $808 million) against $2,376 million ($1,225 million and $1,151 million) a year earlier, a fall of $1,119 million (computed from the release table).

Profit, costs and the new guidance

Reported diluted earnings per share were $0.56 against $0.62, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.87, unchanged from a year earlier. Research and development expenses rose 18% operationally, which Pfizer linked to higher spending on certain oncology and obesity candidates. The quarter includes a one-time $650 million acquired in-process R&D charge for the in-licensing and collaboration agreement with Innovent Biologics, which the company said cost about $0.10 a share.

Pfizer raised full-year revenue guidance by $1.5 billion at the midpoint to $62.0-$64.0 billion, and raised and narrowed adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $2.95-$3.05 from $2.80-$3.00. It also raised its adjusted R&D expense range to $10.8-$11.8 billion from $10.5-$11.5 billion.

On capital allocation, Pfizer said it paid $7.3 billion in cash dividends in the first nine months and invested $8.3 billion in internal R&D. It said that "No share repurchases have been completed to date in 2026" and that current guidance "does not anticipate any share repurchases in 2026". The company said it expects to keep de-levering. Separately, Pfizer said Cecile Guegan became chief financial officer and executive vice president on November 1, 2026.

The raise leans on price, and cash still goes to the dividend and the lab

We think the quarter shows a company growing where its pricing is strongest while the COVID franchise keeps shrinking. Pfizer itself attributes most of Eliquis's increase to net price rather than volume, and that kind of gain depends on rebate terms that can change. Our reading is that the guidance raise is more credible for the launched products, which grew 32% operationally, than for a single drug's pricing.

For capital allocation, which is where we judge strategy, the pattern is clear: dividends and research come first and buybacks wait for lower debt. We expect that to hold through 2027 if revenue stays near the guided range, and we would change that view if a large acquisition or a weaker Eliquis price pushed the company to borrow more. The opportunity is the pipeline spending showing up as launches; the threat is that R&D growing 18% outpaces revenue that was flat.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.