Three weekly falls leave the 30-year mortgage rate above every reading from May 2024 to September

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.18% in the week to November 5, down from 7.24% a week earlier and the third weekly decline in a row, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It is still 0.96 percentage point above the 6.22% of a year ago.

Three declines that have not undone the autumn climb

Freddie Mac said the rate "averaged 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 7.24%." The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60% a week earlier and up from 5.50% a year ago, a gap of 1.07 percentage points (computed).

The survey's own history shows how far rates had climbed first. The 30-year rate was 6.76% in the week of September 10, reached 7.40% on October 8 and again on October 15, then fell to 7.32%, 7.24% and 7.18% in the three weeks since. The three declines add up to 0.22 percentage point from the October peak (computed).

Week of	30-year fixed rate
September 10	6.76%
September 24	7.03%
October 8	7.40%
October 15	7.40%
October 22	7.32%
October 29	7.24%
November 5	7.18%

Source: Freddie Mac PMMS history.

Higher than every reading from May 2024 to September

A search of the survey's weekly history shows the last reading at or above 7.18% before October 1, 2026 was 7.22% in the week of May 2, 2024 (computed from the history file). Every weekly reading in between was lower. The rate is therefore below its October peak but higher than any weekly reading before the climb began, back to May 2024.

What the Treasury market contributed

Freddie Mac says its results are "an average of loan rates offered the prior Thursday through Wednesday." For this survey that window runs from October 29 to November 4. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.98%, 4.94%, 4.91%, 4.95% and 4.90% on the five trading days in it, according to the US Treasury's daily par yield curve, an average of 4.94% (computed).

The difference between the mortgage rate and that average is 2.24 percentage points (computed). The 10-year yield is a market benchmark and the mortgage rate is a survey of lender offers, so the gap is a rough guide to what borrowers pay above the government's cost of borrowing rather than a lender margin.

Freddie Mac described the backdrop as one of "strong economic growth" and said rates "continued their downward trajectory." It did not attribute the decline to a single cause in its release.

A slow slide that leaves payments high

We think the three declines matter less than the level. A borrower looking at 7.18% faces a rate almost a full percentage point above last November's, and the survey shows no sign yet of a return to the sub-7% rates of September.

The opportunity is that the direction has turned: if the 10-year yield stays near 4.9% and the gap to mortgage rates holds near 2.2 points, the rate could drift toward 7% over the coming weeks, which would restore some purchasing power. The threat is that the same strong growth Freddie Mac cites keeps yields from falling much further, and a rebound in yields would erase three weeks of progress quickly. This is a forecast, not a certainty, and it rests on a short run of weekly data.

We would watch the spread to Treasuries and the weekly Thursday release more closely than any single weekly move, because the gap, not only the yield, decides what a household pays each month.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.