Oil and yields are well below October highs, yet the Nasdaq-100 is 14.7% under its record

The 10-year Treasury yield is 41 basis points below its October high and Europe's Brent crude price is 21% below its October peak, yet the Nasdaq-100 closed on November 5 at 14.7% below its record and the S&P 500 at about 6% below its October level (all computed from the series cited below). The two pressures that dominated October, energy and borrowing costs, eased in the data while stocks fell. The data do not tie the sell-off to rates or oil.

Brent fell 21% from its October 2 peak

The Europe Brent spot price was $96.02 a barrel on September 1, climbed to a peak of $135.51 on October 2 and was $107.03 on November 3, the latest reading in the series. From the peak that is a fall of 21.0%, and from September 1 it is still 11.5% higher (both computed). The series is a daily spot price published with a lag, so it does not include the days after November 3. FinanceInTime has followed the swings in its gasoline analysis.

The 10-year yield dropped 41 basis points from October 5

The Federal Reserve's daily 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield reached 5.31% on October 5, the high for the period since September 1, and was 4.90% on November 4. The change is 41 basis points (computed). The 2-year yield fell from 4.92% on September 28 to 4.58% on November 4, a decline of 34 basis points (computed). On November 5 the AP reported that the 10-year yield fell to 4.84% from 4.90% the day before, so the series continued lower.

The 2-year yield peaked in the series on September 28, a week before the 10-year yield peaked on October 5. FinanceInTime covered the move in the 2-year yield analysis.

The Nasdaq-100 fell 14.7% from its October 6 record while the S&P 500 fell less

The Nasdaq-100 closed at a record 31,224.69 on October 6 and at 28,437.17 on November 4, which is 8.9% lower (computed). On November 5 it closed at 26,629.81, a further 6.4% decline on the day and 14.7% below the record (computed). FinanceInTime reported the first crossing of the 10% line in its Nasdaq-100 report.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 on October 6, at 7,541.40 on November 2, its low in the series since early September, and at 7,688.62 on November 4. Through November 4 it was 1.7% below the October 6 close (computed). Then the AP said the index "fell 334.89 points to 7,353.73" on November 5, which puts it 5.95% below the October 6 close (computed). The AP noted that a 1% move in Nvidia has more effect on the S&P 500 than a 1% move in nearly any other U.S. stock.

Volatility rose before the November 5 sell-off, then eased

The Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of expected S&P 500 swings over the next 30 days, was 14.21 on September 22, rose to 21.15 on November 2 and was 16.61 on November 4 (computed range in the series since September 1). The index measures how much movement option traders expect, not what happens next. The series ends on November 4, so it does not show the reading after the sell-off.

What the data do not show

The series do not say why stocks fell. The AP tied the November 5 declines to worries "that the construction of AI data centers may slow because of how expensive it's become to borrow money" and to the possibility that governments could force pauses in data center construction after the Democratic election victories. The AP's own explanation includes borrowing costs, and yields were lower on the day than in October, so the data do not settle how much borrowing costs matter. The data also do not show how much of the Nasdaq-100 decline reflects company earnings, positioning or politics.

We read this as a theme repricing, with rates and oil as the unfinished business

We think the pattern is informative because it breaks the usual rule of thumb that stocks fall when yields and oil rise. Here the relief in yields and crude did not hold the market up, which suggests that the question the market is asking is about the earnings of AI-linked companies and the spending behind them, not about the macro backdrop. That is a narrower problem than a broad repricing, and it matches our view that markets trade on a change in expectations rather than on the size of a day's move.

The threat is that the macro relief reverses. Brent at $107 is still above its September 1 level, and a 10-year yield of 4.84% is above the 4.77% low of September 3 (computed against the series). If oil and yields climb again while chip stocks remain weak, the sell-off could widen beyond one theme. The opportunity is broadening: with the S&P 500 about 6% below October's level while the Nasdaq-100 is 14.7% below, the index has so far fallen by less than its most concentrated part. Over the coming weeks we would expect volatility to stay above September's lows, and we would change our view if the S&P 500 falls to match the Nasdaq-100 while yields rise.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.