US jobless claims fall to 189,000, matching July's low, ahead of Friday's jobs report

Initial claims for US unemployment insurance fell to 189,000 in the week ending October 31, the Department of Labor said in its release on Thursday, November 5. The figure is seasonally adjusted and is 6,000 below the previous week's revised 195,000.

One reading, one low

The 4-week moving average, which smooths weekly noise, was 194,750, down 2,250 from the previous week's revised average, the department said. Without seasonal adjustment, states reported 176,698 initial claims, a decrease of 2,951 (1.6%) from the previous week, against 216,026 in the comparable week of 2025. That is 18.2% fewer than a year earlier (computed).

The 189,000 matches the reading for the week ending July 18 in the series compiled by the St. Louis Fed's FRED database and is not below it. FinanceInTime reported the previous week's reading, which had been the lowest since July.

The count of people on benefits rose while new claims fell

Claims show layoffs, not hiring. The department's measure of people still receiving benefits points the other way from the initial-claims reading. The advance seasonally adjusted number of insured unemployed was 1,718,000 for the week ending October 24, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level, and the insured unemployment rate was 1.1%, unchanged.

Without seasonal adjustment, 1,494,812 people were on state programs that week, an increase of 10,189 (0.7%), and a year earlier the figure was 1,712,402, which makes it 12.7% lower now (computed). The release does not say why the insured count rose while initial claims fell.

The jobs report comes next

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the October Employment Situation report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to its release schedule. FinanceInTime covered the previous report. Claims count a different thing from payrolls: the claims release covers people who file for benefits, while the monthly report measures jobs and the unemployment rate from surveys.

We would treat a low claims reading as evidence about layoffs, not about hiring

We think the 189,000 figure says that employers are still holding on to workers, and nothing more. A low layoff rate and a slow hiring rate can exist together, and the claims release cannot tell them apart. The story it supports is a labor market where few people lose jobs, which is a point in favor of household incomes.

The opportunity is that low layoffs give central banks room to focus on prices rather than jobs. The threat is that a market with little hiring leaves anyone who does lose a job with a longer search, which would show up first in continuing claims. We expect claims to stay in a narrow range through the winter if energy prices do not weigh on employers, and we would change our view if initial claims rose well above their 4-week average of 194,750 for several weeks in a row.

The view in this final section is FinanceInTime's editorial opinion, for information only. It is not investment, tax, legal or other advice, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Forecasts are uncertain and past results do not guarantee future ones.